Coronavirus Briefing; Why a Gun Guy is Worried

The coronavirus is not joke and is a major danger. The world will be a different place in two years because of it. We are currently seeing cluster infections that are turning into community spread. Soon the disease will be all over the country and in your city and neighborhood as well. People will die and times will be hard. We must take this seriously and prepare now to avoid personally hard times.
 
“Hey, who are you to be telling all this stuff?”
 
First, I am researcher and writer, so this article is a collection of information and advice I’ve seen over the past month from experts. Secondly, I was formerly in law enforcement and worked in emergency operations (disaster stuff). I’ve got a stack of FEMA certificates and have been studying disasters for a long time, so while I’m not an expert, I’m not some uninformed weirdo.
 
What is it?
The coronavirus disease, known technically as COVID-19, is similar to a cold or flu.
 
The disease presents like influenza, thus “flu like symptoms.” The specific symptoms are fever, cough, and shortness of breath. The cough is described as a dry cough and a fever, from what I can tell, is present in most cases. Additionally, a fever seems to be what makes it difference than a normal cold.
 
The disease progresses to shortness of breath and pneumonia. In some cases, the difficulty breathing becomes so bad medical treatment is needed. About 20% of the cases are severe enough to require hospitalization. The symptoms can last for 2-3 weeks after one becomes symptomatic and the second or third week are usually the worst and most deadly.
 
It kills mainly through pneumonia and right now, is most deadly to people 60 and older.  However, many people, usually doctors and nurses, in the 30s have already died from it. Young children seem to have little risk of death or serious infection.
 
Why is it so dangerous?
3.5% people who receive the infection will die, although doctors believe for healthy young adults the death rate is 1%. By comparison, 1/10th of a percent of people who catch the flu will die; mostly older adults. Those with compromised immune systems or respiratory disorders like asthma are at risk. It is believed to spread through the air, but not great distances.
 
The disease is dangerous because it seems to spread in people without symptoms for up to two weeks before they get sick. By the time the person is sick, they may have infected a lot of people. Scientists estimate that 80% of the world will have been infected by this time next year. If the infection and death rates hold up, that’s potentially 216 million dead across the world or 9 million dead in the USA alone.
 
There is no vaccine and one is not expected to be available to the public until late 2021, barring a miracle. No drugs are known to work to stop the virus, although experiments are being conducted with a range of drugs.
 
Why should I be worried?

• You may not be able to get medical help until you need life support.
• Medical professionals expect that at the current rate of spread, hospitals nationwide will be at capacity, just with coronavirus patients, by May or June, at the latest. There aren’t enough beds, and most importantly for critical pneumonia patients, not enough oxygen and breathing machines. Many people will die for a lack of medical treatment.
• Hospitals are facing a shortage of protective masks and garments for staff. Doctors and nurses may not come to work if they are getting infected or if they can’t be protected.
• It is estimated that at any given time during the peak of the virus, 25% of workers will be sick. This will include doctors and nurses. Hospitals will be understaffed. Italy and the UK are already recalling retired medical workers to fill shortages.
• If you get critically ill, you may not get a bed at a hospital or if you do, you may not get oxygen or a breathing machine.
• Field hospitals in gyms, stadiums, and other large buildings may be setup and staffed by volunteers. Medical treatment will be rudimentary.
• There may be drastic measures and major quarantines. Your city may be closed to travel. You may not be able to leave your home. State borders may be closed.

 
What non-medical effects will there be?

• We are already seeing panic buying and hoarding. Masks and hand sanitizer are practically unavailable everywhere. Soap, disinfectant spray, wipes, and toilet paper shelves are empty. Panic buying will only get worse as cases pop-up across the country and will get very bad when the government declares an emergency.
• Shortages in stores and online will be common. For certain products, like the above and long-term food (freeze dried), it is impossible to find it. Panic buying will lead to people hoarding and filling up shopping carts with all sorts of things. Some stores are already limiting how many cleaning supplies, toilet paper, water, etc. you can buy at a time.
• If you have not prepared for a shortage, you may be unable to find necessities and even food. Australia has no toilet paper in stores and people fight over the few packages they can find. Food will be next, especially canned food and non-perishables. Shortages mean you will have to shop more frequently, exposing yourself to possible infection, to see what’s available to buy that day or if the product you need has been restocked.
• Goods made in China may not be available because many factories in China. This may cause stores to close because they have little or nothing to sell.
• With everyone shipping things instead of going to stores, delivery delays will become common. Later on, shipping may take much longer if FedEx/UPS employees get sick. Things may be stolen in transit or off doorsteps.
• Police/firefighter/paramedics will become sick and will not report to duty. There will be fewer first responders on duty, so prepare to protect yourself.
• Businesses may close and jobs may be lost. For example, a store that can’t get product has to close. The people that work there can’t spend money at a restaurant that people are staying away from already.

 
What should I do now?

• Practice good hygiene. Wash your hands frequently and well, especially when coming home. Use disinfectant wipes or sprays to clean things off.
• Stop shaking hands and keep some distance from people as much as you can in public settings.
• Stop touching your face.
• Make plans for being out of work or when schools are closed.
• Stay healthy. Eat well, sleep well, and take vitamins you may not be getting.
• Stock up while you still can. What are you short of at home? Buy high-demand things first: soap, disinfectants, bleach, toilet paper, and paper towels. Buy enough for 1-3 months (so you don’t have to worry about shortages right away).
• Keep 1-3 months worth of non-perishable food on hand. Be sure to buy easy to cook foods in case you get sick, like soups, etc. and also things like Gatorade to replenish fluid.
• Replace what you use when you go shopping (minimize shopping trips).
• If you can pull your kids out of school or you can stop going to class, do it before the schools close. Adults who can work from home should do so and employers should make this possible.
• Stay away from large crowds or groups of strangers. Avoid casinos, bars, theaters, malls, events, concerts, rallies, etc.
• For church, avoid hugging people or shaking hands. Sit no closer than one space from the next person. Do not share communion cups or eat wafers from a single bowel. Children should probably stay home as they don’t know how to practice good hygiene.
• Refrain from eating out; you don't know if the waiter or cook is contagious but doesn't have symptoms.
• If you are far away from home, get home as soon as you can. You do not want to be across the county on business if the city you are in or trying to get to is quarantined (or worse, airline flights stop for a month).
• You should be prepared for frightened, panicking, and desperate people in the next weeks to months. Later on, if enough people are out of work or there are severe shortages, crime and violence may go up as people try to provide for themselves.

 
What shouldn’t I do?

• Don’t panic. Chances are, you’ll live and be fine. Everyone alive today is alive because their ancestors survived the 1918 Spanish Flu and for those of European ancestry in particular, hundreds of years ago our ancestors survived the Black Death. A year or two from now, life will return to normal. In the meantime, once the panic stops and people adjust, life will settle down.
• Don’t hoard water. Having water on hand for general emergencies or if you live in earthquake country is prudent. But there is little chance of the water being shut off because of the coronavirus.
• If you are sick, don’t go to work/school/church etc. Stay home and call your doctor before showing up at a hospital or office.
• Don’t travel on an airplane or cruise ship.

 
Questions
Is it a danger now? For those in major urban areas, very much so. In the very short term, you have pretty good odds most people around you are healthy, but the danger with this disease is people don’t have symptoms for such a long time while remaining infectious.
 
Will wearing a mask help? There are two kinds of masks: surgical and N95. Surgical masks, like doctors wear, are to keep germs from you from getting out. They are poor protectors of you from germs getting into your lungs. N95 dust masks are designed to keep fine particles out and do a much better job of keeping germs out of your lungs, if they fit correct.
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When should I wear a mask? If you feel sick (and must go out), wear a mask. When the disease becomes widespread in your area, and you have to go out and be around people, then wear preferably a N95 mask. Be sure to learn how to put on your mask properly and to take it off right. Throw it away after use.

I can’t find masks. Do I need to wear one? You’ll probably be fine without one, though if you have to be around a lot of people when things get bad, a mask will help. Just wash your hands and don’t touch your face. You can find instructions on how to make homemade masks online.

Should I wear gloves? When you go to stores, you can, just remember gloves aren’t magic. Gloves protect your bare hands, but the glove itself picks up germs that can be left elsewhere. Imagine whatever you touch with gloves is dog poop. Do not reuse gloves and learn how to take them off properly

Will the electricity/water go out? Water systems require little maintenance and like electricity, will be a major priority to keep operational. No major utilities failed in 1918 because too many people got sick.

Can we go outside? Yes, just stay away from people. It is recommended you keep 6 feet distance from other people. If you touch things like shared equipment, be sure not to touch your face and wash your hands. The disease isn’t like poison gas creeping along. Feel free to take walks, go hiking, etc.

Can we go to the gym? I wouldn’t. If you do, carefully wipe things down with disinfectant and use a clean towel every time.

What is the government doing? Very little. The CDC screwed up early test kits, so many possible cases haven’t been detected. Tests are just now starting to catch up. Federal officials still haven’t called for drastic closures or quarantines. Nor have they asked the public to start to prepare. It seems the government is trying to avoid a panic, without properly informing people of the reality of the situation, and trying to keep the stock market from crashing. 

CDC website how to prepare

Sources I Follow on the Topic

YouTube: Dr. John Campbell (evidence based, medical perspective, daily updates)
YouTube: Peak Prosperity (good source for regular news updates)
Raconteur Report (very salty patriotic, gun-owning, ER nurse in So-Cal)
Twitter is also a good source for news and information like this.